The New Great Game

When historians look back at the two wars of George W. Bush, they'll almost undoubtedly see two failures. But they won't blame the troops or the generals. Instead, history will convict Bush and his people of careless planning and the lack of a historical context when they went to war. But they'll also talk more about Iraq because that country was more civilized - with its roads, bridges, schools, museums - than that other country where we are at war with, Afghanistan.

But Afghanistan is also on the verge of collapsing. An NPR report suggested that the Taliban and drug lords are again terrorizing villages and the stability of the country is deteriorating quickly.

There are many reasons to be concerned about losing control of Afghanistan. The most important might be because of its geography - its central location.

Here is a map of Afghanistan:

Notice it's location - Central Asia. Next to two countries the United States has had tensions with historically - Iran and Pakistan. To the east of Afghanistan is China and to the north are former Soviet republics. Also notice that on the upper left-hand corner of the map is the gas-rich Caspian Sea.

I point out geography because the country's location has been a major source of the tensions and wars that have occurred there over the centuries. But I'll spare that detail because I don't think you all want to read about a few millennia of conflict in this country.

But before I start, I think a brief history of that country from the late 19th century to the present is needed.

In the early 20th century, Britain was the great world power and had control over India. But to the north of India sat the ever-growing power Russia. Separating the two empires was the region known as Afghanistan. Both the British and the Russians knew that this region would be important for trade and commerce, so for almost 30 years they fought for control. British are eventually defeated.

In 1919, Afghanistan claimed independence.

1921, Third Afghan-Anglo War.

1933-1973, Afghanistan enjoys its longest period of stability. Schools, roads and museums are built.

1973, The Empire strikes back. Communists in Afghanistan begin to exert control and in 1978 lead a bloodless coup.

1979, unhappy with who was in charge in Afghanistan, Prime Minister Hafizullah Amin was assassinated. Soviet troops moved into the country.

1980s, the United States began to fund the mujahideen, Afghan freedom fighters. In addition to these freedom fighters, Arabs from neighboring countries began to join in the fight. Among these Arabs? Osama bin Laden.
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1989, after years of war against the mujahideen - and a new group called "Al Qaeda" - the Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan.

Early 1990s, after the United States left Afghanistan mostly to its own doing - main purpose of driving out the USSR accomplished - several warlords gained power. And they abused their power.

1994-1995, under the leadership of Mullah Omar, the Taliban gained control of the country. The enforce strict Islamic law on the country.

1995-2001, Taliban rule Afghanistan. They destroy several historical objects, close schools and crack down on drug lords (however drug production actually increased after 1997).

1997, Taliban begin meeting with Unocal officials about a pipeline that would run through the country to the Indian Ocean. Taliban officials take a tour of Texas - including a trip to the Texas zoo. This site has a timeline of the pipeline plan. Unocal decides that the region was too unstable for the pipeline and the plan dies.

Sept. 11, 2001 - Terrorist attacks on the United States leads to the overthrow of the Taliban, who had sheltered accused leader Osama bin Laden.

2002, Hamid Karzai, a former oil executive, is elected president of Afghanistan.

OK, so there is the brief history. A country that has suffered from years of war because of its geographic situation appears to be on the verge of another large outbreak.

For strategic purposes, fighting in Afghanistan was the right thing to do. A regime that had been violating human rights was overthrown and replaced with a Democratic one. The pipeline would (and still may) have brought needed revenue to the country. But unless the country is brought under control, it will become a breeding ground for opium production and for terrorism.

Who/what is to blame? Well, that's easy. George Bush and his rush to go to war with Iraq. Afghanistan could've had a chance if the United States had moved in with a full force and secured it. But we didn't. We sent enough to overthrow the government, but not enough to ensure the success of a new government. That was the biggest mistake. Sure the United States has put in billions to help the country, but it's not enough. The success of Afghanistan should have been our goal since day 1. But obviously, the war in Afghanistan was just a stepping stone to get to a war in Iraq.

Defeats - withdrawals without victories - in Afghanistan were precursors for the downfall of two of the great 20th-Century empires. What would that say about this country if the United States is eventually driven out and defeated?